Tuesday, November 20, 2007

HIV figures overstated by Millions

Should anyone be surprised by this? The NY Times reports:
In the past, global health officials have treated the epidemic as a cyclone spiraling ever upward with no end to new infections in sight.But better surveys, particularly a household survey in India, have driven the figures down.Until recently, most national estimates were made by giving anonymous blood tests to some young women who came into public health clinics because they were pregnant or feared they had a sexually transmitted disease; those results were expanded with statistical models.But epidemiologists have realized that such a method — usually applied in big urban clinics because it was more efficient — oversampled prostitutes, drug abusers and people with multiple partners, and ignored rural women. Then the statistical extrapolations exaggerated those errors.
The AIDS industry should be called to account.

2 comments:

Naima said...

Houshold surveys, especially in India, are not going to give you appropriate estimates. Sexually Transmitted diseases are very much frowned upon and people are not going to report it if they are infected. Also, a large percentage of them don't even know that they are infected with the virus. Living in Nigeria, people refused to believe they had AIDS. I have met people who claimed it was blackmagic, sought herbal treatment and died soon after. It is better to overestimate the statistics and take precaution, than to think it is not a big issue. If anything, scaring people about the threat might scare them enough to practice safer sex and will bring in funding for research on cheaper medication.

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